Friday, November 14, 2008

The real game theory

The first year Darden curriculum covers basic concepts of strategy, what it is and how to come up with one and how to leverage your strength and position yourself in a competitive environment. We also learnt a little bit about game theory in Decision analysis. Strategy doesn’t make much sense without execution and we got insight into operations and execution. I am a big fan of hands on learning and I put my learning to great use.

Through the 3rd and 4th quarter of last year and the beginning of the Second year my roommate and me spend a lot of time playing video games. This is probably one of the rare times in our lives where we can spend significant portion of time on what majority in the society consider “not so valuable activities”. Our favorite game is “Age of empires” which is essentially a strategy game where you build a civilization and armies to attempt to defeat and conquer your opponents. The game has multiple dimensions on which you must do well to succeed. You need to be faster, have better economic power, more equipped troop’s and better battle strategies than your competitor to win. We modified rules so as to make this a more strategic game that heavily favored the “defender”. The defender basically amasses huge defenses at a predetermined location that attacker must penetrate. Essentially to win as aggressor you needed a superior economic and military strategy and excellent execution.

My roommate also happens to be an excellent video game player which makes the task of winning extremely difficult for me. We were at a point when we both agreed that it was almost impossible to win this game as the “attacking” team. However, I decided to give it one last shot. At this point you might have guessed that I won the game otherwise I never would have written this post. Other than bragging about how I won and why I won, I wanted to compare this to everything I have learnt about strategy at Darden.

I took some time just before the game to reflect on a strategy. I recalled a case in the First year decision analysis about one party having additional information and thus a huge advantage. We had applied game theory principles and concluded that the best option for the other party was to randomize its strategy. I picked a nontraditional team with strengths such that it was not apparent how I would attack. This prevented my opponent investing in particular capabilities that could counter me as he could not zero in on those I would leverage. Secondly I thought about my core capabilities and how they were different from my competitor. I invested my resource in developing my core capabilities. In terms of the actual battle I need a sustained attack to penetrate opponent’s defense and given the limitations of my resources, I had to think about what I produce to enable sustained production of key defense troops. Another execution and operational element was assembly and deliver of key units to particular location. In past we have several times done this akin to a batch which I endeavored to change to a more continuous flow process. In our post game conversation my roommate conceded that he did not expect the attacks to last as long. As he saw the first attack and looking back at our experience he assumed that it could not be executed in a sustained way. End of the day a lot of different initiatives and actions were aligned towards a single goal which helped achieve the objective.

So, what does this mean? Maybe it proves business school students are geeks. It definitely conveys that we have plenty of free time and not much use for it. Other than all the entertainment value, at least for me to some extent it brought together different elements of strategy and execution. We do have some simulations for marketing and operations, maybe strategy games could be included as well.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Drunken poetry

I remember I used to write poems as a kid. I considered it the best way to communicate thoughts and feelings as well as an underlying deeper meaning. I haven't written anything for about 9-10 years. But today, a little drunk, I felt like writing something. So here it is

Nomad

I move again
Running from myself
Out to explore
Seeking something more

What is it I want to find
Something that I already left behind
More I want, more I lose
Future or past I have to choose

Interesting thoughts
endless desires
Not materialistic but living
Experience's the strife

Is it enough to exist
Or more important to live
If former its easy
But if its latter
What does it mean?

Monday, October 27, 2008

A Meaningless conversation

Poor Guy: My situation’s bad. I feel deprived, cheated!

Uncommon man: Really?

Poor Guy: I am robbed of my wealth. Maybe I cannot get the things that I have wanted, in fact deserved, for so long.

Uncommon man: Why? Because you couldn’t get the most expensive furniture you wanted?

You buy furniture. You tell yourself, this is the last sofa I will ever need in my life. Buy the sofa, then for a couple years you're satisfied that no matter what goes wrong, at least you've got your sofa issue handled. Then the right set of dishes. Then the perfect bed. The drapes. The rug. Then you're trapped in your lovely nest, and the things you used to own, now they own you.
Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need

Poor Guy: How can you say that I don’t need it? What do I need, what don’t I need?

Uncommon man:
If you don’t know what you want, you end up with a lot you don’t
It's because we're so trapped in our culture, in the being of being human on this planet with the brains we have, and the same two arms and legs everybody has. We're so trapped that any way we could imagine to escape would be just another part of the trap. Anything we want, we're trained to want


Poor Guy: It’s not all about what I own. My life is more than that. I am a fun and interesting person. I can tell you about one time when…..

Uncommon man:
People are all over the world telling their one dramatic story and how their life has turned into getting over this one event. Now their lives are more about the past than their future

The best way to waste your life, is by taking notes. The easiest way to avoid living is to just watch. Look for the details. Report. Don't participate


Poor Guy: Well I do participate. I am smart, well-educated, fun and outgoing

Uncommon man: Labels!
I want out of the labels. I don't want my whole life crammed into a single word. A story. I want to find something else, unknowable, some place to be that's not on the map. A real adventure

Poor Guy: We are seeing a real adventure. Look at the events that are going on. Life is going to change forever.

Uncommon man:
The moment when your addictions no longer hide the truth from you. When your whole life breaks down. That's the moment when you have to somehow choose what your life is going to be about

Look hard at yourself. Are you near it or far from it?
______________________________________
What this means:
This post is about materialism in today's Life. It intrigues me that so many people directly measure their happiness from material possessions they can obtain and/or the overall wealth as opposed to actions or feelings. The post and the thoughts are inspired by writings of the author Chuck Palanuik. All words in italics are direct quotes from the author. While the above conversation might strike as meaningless to many, I sincerely hope that it does instigate some to look for meaning rather than material.

Disclaimer:
The above post is an imaginary conversation that uses quotes from author Chuck palanuik to convey a message. The post does not claim that the author would respond similarly in this situation and should be interpreted as such.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Reaching for the moon

"That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind."


Famous words of Neil Armstrong when he first stepped on the moon in 1969. Moon has always draw our attention. From ancient mythology to scientific research we cannot get enough of it. Soviet Union were the first to reach the moon with Luna-1 in 1959. USA the first to accomplish a manned mission in 1969. From mid 1960s to mid 1970s there were 65 instances of artificial objects landing on the moon.Only 5 countries have manned to send satellites to the moon. Now its India's turn. On October 22nd India would launch its first moon mission Chandrayaan I. In past India has successfully developed SLV,ASLV, PSLV, GSLV launch capabilities and has launched numerous satellites many countries. This moon mission would be Indian Space research Organisation's first attempt at sending a satellite outside the earth's orbit.


Chandrayaan I mission includes a lunar orbiter as well as an impactor. Over a two-year period, it is intended to survey the lunar surface to produce a complete map of its chemical characteristics and 3-dimensional topography. The mission includes five ISRO payloads and six payloads from other international space agencies such as NASA and ESA. It is carrying these payloads for free. If successful this would pave way for a new era in space exploration. ISRO already has plans for a second mission Chandrayaan II and is considering building reusable space aircraft and future manned mission.


Wish us good luck in scaling the final frontier.
More Info:

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Narnia Revelations

I am just back from a talk by Rev. Dr. Michael Ward , a Cambridge scholar, on what C.S. Lewis is up to in The Chronicles of Narnia – and why it matters. The event was organised by the Darden Christian fellowship. Well! before I go further and comment on the talk I have 3 disclaimers to make

1. I have not read any of the Narnia books, I did read up the history of Chronicles and Narnia, the story behind the first book on wikipedia before I went to the talk.
2. I am an atheist and have been for a while
3. I know little bit about C.S. Lewis and I did attempt to read "mere Christianity" but could not complete it

OK, having read the disclosure if you are still reading this post you are probably an Atheist, agnostic looking for a conforming point of view or a Christian hoping that I was finally enlightened and have turned around in my ways. Well at least at this point I am going to please neither. I am just writing some observations, thoughts and raising some questions based on my observations.

Firstly let me recap what the talk was about i.e. from what I understood. Rev. Dr. Michael Ward conjectured that C.S. Lewis's had a central theme behind The Chronicles of Narnia that related to the planets and deeper all encompassing divinity. That C.S. Lewis believed that planets and heavenly bodies are not mere matter but more and divine presence is everywhere and all encompassing and hence hard for us to notice. The reason he left it secretive was that he believed in "kappa element of romance" i.e. the meaning/motive behind writing stories that does not immediately present itself. Hence we wanted to leave things to reader's imagination and hoped that they would connect the dots. This is probably not a very accurate description of what he said but what I understood and truly hope its close to what he was trying to convey. In either case its not very relevaant to what I am about to discuss.

Whats interesting to me is that while the "Chronicles of Narnia" is considered fantasy/fairy tales by many, others associate it with theology and mythology. Most people, especially people of faith, I found are trying to find a deeper meaning or association with theological concepts from some other text. Why? that's an interesting question. Why does it matter if there are connections or not? Maybe people are curious, they want to understand the intent of the reader. If we talk about intent there has to be some speculation on the conclusion. Maybe C.S. Lewis drew ideas from his belief and modelled each story on different planets and their mythological characters. Maybe this was just a way think about new concepts or stories. Or maybe he did intend to bring out certain subtle relations and connections to make a deeper point about "more than just matter" and "divine all-encompassing presence". Why is it so important for people to draw meaning from a primarily fantasy series? Maybe association is another validation to a belief derived from something stated elsewhere?

While I was listening to this eloquent speaker who really retained audience attention so well, I jotted down some notes. Key theme that reappeared were analogies. If something represents something in one context, it can help infer a similar meaning in another context. Example here was that of light illuminating series of dust particles and being very evident when we were besides it. However if we were in the path of light beam we could not see the light beam but only what it illuminated. I guess the point was not everything meets the eye. I think that's a good example to convey that point. However, I am sceptic. I believe in frame of reference so I see analogies skeptically. In sharp contrast I found that these were very reassuring to the audience. One of the reasons I went to this talk was to observe. I assumed that most people in this audience if not all would be devout Christians and I was curious to find what is convincing to someone with faith. I definitely need to research this more thoroughly but it seemed to me that associations and analogies were very important.

As an Atheist I totally understand and agree in finding meaning in everything. That's been the crux of my existence. Ask questions, find out how? why? what it means? So the question that is on my mind is why do people looking for associations when they try to find meaning in something? I don't know why yet but I hope someone can enlighten me.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Must read for Business school applicants

Everyday I get some very common questions on MBA applications and admissions with not so easy answers. Obviously everyone wants the most returns with least amount of effort. However, when it comes to B-school applications it not easy to judge where your effort is best spent. There is lot of judgement exercised by the admission committee in making their decisions and hence there is no objective answer on whether you can make it to so and so school based on your profile. Nevertheless people still ask the questions and I still attempt to answer several every week. I felt it might help some applicants if I post some guidance based on my experience. So here goes -

Q1: Can I get into so and so Business school. Here is my profile GMAT:X, GPA:Y , Experience 5 years in Z, Extra curricular A and B?

If it were so easy to grant admissions based on just the above information, trust me the admission committee of every school would not be spending hours and hours reviewing and discussing every application. Adcoms are looking for everything from your academics, your analytical skills, communication skills, quality of your work experience, your achievements on and off work and thought and reflection on your decisions. Why you have done the things you have and why you want to do things you have set out to e.g. pursue MBA etc.

Having said that you can to some extent ballpark your chances based on how you compare to the average applicant on some dimensions. Look at incoming class profiles (you will find the on the school websites in information for prospective candidates) for every school to determine how you compare with mean/median GPA, GMAT and work experience. This is only an indicator and does not give any concrete answers. Only way you will know for sure is to apply and give it your best shot.

Q2 Which schools should I apply to?

Apply to schools that you are really really excited about. Maybe its the teaching method, faculty, culture or people. Make sure it meets your career objective and it provides an atmosphere you can do well in. Pay some attention to whether you can get into the school by looking at the incoming student profile (refer previous question) but don't let that dictate your answer. As I mentioned in previous question its not just about a few parameters. Refer to my previous post 2007 and 2008 for my thinking on school choices.

Q3 How do I find out more about the school? How do I know if I fit?

The best place to start is the school website. Look at the resources for prospective applicants. What does the school say about itself. What is the teaching method, curriculum, culture, profile etc. What is the school philosophy and how does the school position itself. Rankings help here but see whats behind the rankings. Go to other sites on the web explore what is being said about the school. Blogs are a good source of this information. Some books also provide an overview of the school. Next, look at the things that are important to you based on where you are now and where you want to be. Examine different dimensions, not just career. Your fit or lack of it will start to come out. This research will put you in good stead when it comes to writing the essays.

Q4 What should I write in my essays

Each school has its own set of questions and is trying to find different information. Write a interesting story but keep it crisp. Dig deep and find out what drives you. The essays are insightful when you write not just what you want to do but why you want to do it. Think of incidents that shaped you and make you the person you are. Before you get down to the essays you should have resolved in your mind why you are pursuing MBA, what set of skills you have and those you looking for, what environment best suits you, and where you are headed long term and why? One thing I found helps in this introspection is to ask yourself 'why?' repeatedly till you fight the root driver of your feelings or thoughts.

Here's Sara Neher, Darden's admission director's advice on applicant essays

Useful links

Where do I start

Thinking about career goals

More to follow....

I'll keep adding to this post. Leave a comment if you want generic questions answered

Friday, September 19, 2008

Time for US to follow the world?

For most part of the 20th century America has dominated the world scene be it Business, economy or its military might. It is still by far the largest economy in the world and also has the distinction of being the oldest democracy. However over the last several years it has faced with some challenging issues. What does the future hold for this nation?

Having lived in US for several years as an international I have seen some great and not so great aspects of the American society. On a per capita basis US is perhaps one the most wealthiest countries in the world. However GDP per capita hides more than it shows. The obvious one is the divide among the rich and the poor. US ranks lower amongst most developed nations. Of course there are other measurements such as 'gini coefficient' and 'HDI' that do reveal some insights into this. I do however question the validity of such measurement as indication of well-being or happiness. Some of the happiest and most content people I have met were farmers in rural India who by UN standards live under the poverty line of $1/day. Anyway my point is not to debate these measurements but to inquire of the philosophy the increase production/ consumption as the answer to all questions on well-being.

Communism and Socialism were invalidated as answers to societal and political problems in late 20th century. There is simple lack of long term incentive to individuals to perform well. However we have found of late the glaring gaps of blatant capitalism, free market and government non-intervention. I wouldn't say that this is a recent problem in US. Health care and discrepancy in benefits available to rich and poor have been issues for debate over the years. By intervening in the markets US has severely impacted its credibility to preach on many occasions coax countries on free market philosophy.

Coming back to the original question of leadership. It is quite obvious that India and China would grow at an exponential rate from here. Many other developing countries would also catch up. We would most likely see them stand up on the global stage and weigh in on issues. Sometimes leadership is all about bringing the best out in others and letting them blossom. In my opinion US may be best served by following this approach and working towards integration with the world on thoughts, policies and collaborative actions. "lets make world a better place rather than let me show you how to do things our way!"

Though Europeans have had their issues, they have shown leadership in some areas. Signing Kyoto protocol and agreeing to reduce carbon emissions do stand out. Another important aspect is the current political structures in the European countries. In most countries you either have Labor or Social-democrats who lean 'left' in political terms. Might it be time for US to take a cue and think in terms of Public infrastructure, health care etc rather than how to pump more oil and give more tax credits to let people spend more. Not just Europeans but countries around the world are standing up and taking lead on issues that face the world. I do not agree that sending troops into sovereign nation is a act of leadership. It could be, but sometimes its better to be persevere and work collaborative towards a solution.

I may have been little bit all over the shop discussing this but what I am trying to say is countries around the world are doing interesting things. It might be time for US to notice that and learn; it might be time to follow.
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Added Sep 22
Some intersting articles on the topic.
Funny and cynical view on the same subject -
Fallout between US and Europe on how to tackle the latest financial crisis. Some quotes and link to the article

“There’s a view in Europe that this is a U.S.-made problem, and that it should be solved in the U.S.,” said Charles H. Dallara, the managing director of the Institute for International Finance, a group of 340 global banks"

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, criticized the United States and Britain for opposing German attempts to put greater regulation, or at least reviews, of the financial sector on the international agenda last year, when she was leading the Group of 7.

“Everyone who produces a real product knows what it looks like and what standards it is up to,” Mrs. Merkel said, while traveling in Austria. “One also needs to know with a financial product what’s involved. Otherwise, these sorts of things happen that we then all have to pay for.”

Christian de Boissieu, chairman of the French prime minister’s council of economic analysis, said: “The U.S. must take charge of the budgetary costs of the crisis. I’m all for trans-Atlantic solidarity, but this doesn’t include financing the bailout.”

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